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CUSTOM RESEARCH

The Future of Outcome-Based Investing: How Defined Outcome ETFs™ Are Poised for Rapid Growth

November 19, 2025

Shifting advisory models and investor demographics favor solutions that offer predictable returns and personalized risk management at scale.

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New research from Cerulli and Innovator ETFs finds that significant tailwinds such as home-office approvals at large broker/dealers could accelerate asset growth in the Defined Outcome exchange-traded fund (ETF) category to a 29% to 35% five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR). In the more optimistic scenario, Defined Outcome ETFs™ are projected to nearly quadruple over a five-year period, reaching more than $334 billion by 2030. This growth would significantly outpace the growth of the broader ETF industry,

By combining customization and scalability, these products empower advisors to meet the diverse needs of today's investors, from risk-averse retirees seeking stability to younger clients navigating volatile markets. However, despite their growing appeal, Defined Outcome ETFs™ still face meaningful headwinds—particularly when it comes to adoption and integration at the home-office level, where operational and educational barriers remain.

Use this white paper to explore:

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Investor and Advisor Demand

Explore how demographic shifts and the move toward fee-based accounts are influencing demand for Defined Outcome ETFs™.

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Portfolio Use Cases

Assess potential portfolio construction use cases, including fixed-income replacement, an equity hedge allocation, a liquid alternative, or a cash placeholder.

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Advisor Use Cases

Evaluate advisors’ use of the product as a tool to meet a client objective, rather than as a standalone allocation in a specific portion of the portfolio.

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Barriers to Adoption

Understand home-office concerns, including outcome period variability and product complexity.

MEET THE TEAM

Subject Matter Experts

Bing Waldert

Bing Waldert

Managing Director, U.S. Research

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Bing Waldert

Bing Waldert

Managing Director, U.S. Research

Bing Waldert leads Cerulli’s U.S. Research team comprising seven research practices that cover all elements of the U.S. asset management, wealth management, and retirement markets. He has authored Cerulli reports on the wealth management industry, high-net-worth market, the annuity industry, and retirement markets. He is a frequent board-level and C-suite speaker and well-regarded industry thought leader. He has spoken in front of the Investment Company Institute (ICI), the Asset Management Association of China (AMAC), the Investments and Wealth Institute (IWI), and the Money Management Institute (MMI).

He has worked on client projects on emerging manager expansion strategies, independent registered investment advisors (RIAs), multi-family offices (MFOs), investment platforms, and the outsourced chief investment officer (OCIO) industry. In addition, he has advised multiple private equity firms on acquisitions in the wealth management space.

Full biography here.

Asher Cheses

Asher Cheses

Director

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Asher Cheses

Asher Cheses

Director

Asher is a Director in the Wealth Management practice, specializing in research and consulting related to high-net-worth investors and advisory firms, including multi-family offices, RIAs, broker/dealers, private banks, and trust companies. As the co-head of Cerulli’s Wealth Management practice, Asher leads a team of analysts dedicated to developing data and insights to support Cerulli’s published research and consulting business. In his role, Asher is also responsible for leading various strategic consulting engagements, focusing on key areas including growth strategies, practice management, service expansion, M&A due diligence, product development, and distribution strategies.

Full biography here.

Andrew Larsen

Andrew Larsen

Analyst

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Andrew Larsen

Andrew Larsen

Analyst

Andrew is an analyst on the Wealth Management team, providing quantitative analysis for the U.S. Advisor Metrics and U.S. RIA Marketplace annual reports. He primarily supports Cerulli's financial advisor research and data collection processes. He also contributes to The Cerulli Edge series, as well as various consulting engagements related to the financial advisor marketplace.

Full biography here.

Andrew Rose

Andrew Rose

Associate Analyst

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Andrew Rose

Andrew Rose

Associate Analyst

Andrew is an associate analyst in Cerulli’s Product Development practice, focusing on trends related to asset managers’ product strategy, development, and management functions. This broadly includes assessing the opportunity for product line expansion, evaluating emerging product trends, assessing optimal pricing strategy, and understanding distribution and product positioning for investment products across retail and institutional channels.

Full biography here.

Daniil Shapiro, CFA

Daniil Shapiro, CFA

Director, Cerulli Associates

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Daniil Shapiro, CFA

Daniil Shapiro, CFA

Director, Cerulli Associates

Daniil is part of Cerulli’s Product Development practice, where he works on the identification, analysis, and reporting of asset management industry trends with a focus on exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and alternative investments.

Prior to joining Cerulli Associates, Daniil was part of the Product Management and Business Intelligence teams with the MainStay Funds, part of New York Life Investment Management. At MainStay, Daniil supported sales efforts via fund and ETF competitive analysis, product research, and development of marketing materials, as well as performance reporting. Before New York Life, Daniil was part of the risk management practice at Accenture, and held risk and compliance roles at HSBC’s investment bank.

Full biography here.

Christopher Swansey

Christopher Swansey

Associate Director

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Christopher Swansey

Christopher Swansey

Associate Director

Christopher is an Associate Director on the Institutional team where he leads the annual Outsourced Chief Investment Officer (OCIO) report and supports various strategic consulting projects throughout the year. He has previously led the annual Institutional Markets and Insurance General Accounts reports. He also leads the Institutional Investor Research Collaborative (IIRC), a research effort focused on connecting with and learning from institutional investors.

Christopher was a Senior Analyst at Mercer working within their executive compensation consulting practice before joining Cerulli in 2018.

Full biography here.

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